RESEARCH
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Oil Leads Energy Stocks Higher
Energy is the best performing sector in the S&P 500 this year, up 49% through Oct. 9 against 15% for the index. Oil explains most of it.
Jacob Radke
1 min read
Energy Select Sector SPDR (XLE) and S&P 500 (SPY) total return since Dec. 31, 2025, with Brent crude front-month futures; through Oct. 9, 2026.
Source · Yahoo Finance; Fjell Capital analysis
Energy, 2026 YTD
+49%
Total return of the Energy Select Sector SPDR (XLE) from Dec. 31, 2025 through Oct. 9, 2026, the best of the 11 S&P 500 sectors.
S&P 500, 2026 YTD
+15%
Total return of the SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY) over the same period.
Brent peak, March 31
$118
Brent front-month futures at the end of March, up from $61 at the start of the year after the Strait of Hormuz closed.
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Key takeaways
Energy is up 49% in 2026 through Oct. 9, the best of the 11 S&P 500 sectors. The S&P 500 is up 15%.
Brent crude nearly doubled to $118 by the end of March after the Strait of Hormuz closed on Feb. 28.
Oil fell to $72 after a June ceasefire and climbed back to $105 after the strait closed again on July 8.
At the March oil peak, the S&P 500 was down 4% on the year while energy was up 38%.
Energy is the best performing sector in the S&P 500 this year. It's up 49% through Friday, while the S&P 500 is up 15%.
On February 28 the war with Iran began and the Strait of Hormuz, which carries about a fifth of the world's oil, effectively closed. By the end of March, Brent crude had nearly doubled to $118.
A June ceasefire partly reopened the strait and oil fell back to $72 per barrel. Then on July 8 the ceasefire broke, the strait closed again, and oil rallied back to $105 per barrel.
Energy is the one part of the market that gets paid when an oil shock like this one hits. At the oil peak in March, the S&P 500 was down 4% on the year and energy was up 38%.
Until next week,
Jacob
Sources & method
Sector and index returns: Yahoo Finance total return for the Energy Select Sector SPDR (XLE) and SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY), Dec. 31, 2025 through Oct. 9, 2026.
Oil prices: ICE Brent front-month futures via Yahoo Finance (BZ=F). EIA Brent spot prices ran higher during the closure.
Strait of Hormuz share of world oil: U.S. Energy Information Administration, World Oil Transit Chokepoints.
Written by
Jacob Radke
Partner, Wealth Advisor
Jacob writes the weekly charts. Jacob leads the firm’s platform, including trading, research, portfolio systems and technology. He also sits on the firm’s board and investment committee, and advises client families.
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