RESEARCH
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What the 10-Year Yield Did After Rising on 18 of 24 Days
The 10-year Treasury yield rose on 18 of 24 trading days, closing at 5.29% on Sept. 30. In the 11 prior times since 1965, it was lower a year later in seven.
Jacob Radke
1 min read
Change in the 10-year Treasury yield one year after each prior episode of 18 or more up days in 24, since 1965.
Source · Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (FRED); Fjell Capital analysis
Lower a year later
7 of 11
Prior episodes since 1965 when the 10-year yield rose on 18 of 24 days in which the yield was lower one year later.
Average change, points
−0.46
Average change in the 10-year Treasury yield one year after those 11 episodes; the median was −0.18.
10-year real yield
2.93%
The 10-year TIPS yield at the end of September 2026, the highest since 2008.
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Markets & Investing
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Key takeaways
The 10-year yield rose on 18 of 24 trading days, closing at 5.29% on Sept. 30.
In the 11 prior episodes since 1965, it was lower one year later in seven, by an average of 0.46 points.
Expected inflation barely changed; the real yield rose to 2.93%, the highest since 2008.
Rates kept rising in four of the 11 episodes, which is the price risk of a long bond.
The 10-year Treasury yield rose on 18 of the last 24 trading days, closing at 5.29% on Sept. 30. Since 1965, that has happened only 11 other times.
A year later, the 10-year was lower in seven of them, by an average of 0.46%.
This move isn't coming from inflation, expected inflation barely changed. The real yield, what a bond pays above inflation, rose to 2.93%, which is the highest since 2008.
A bond held to maturity locks in the yield it was bought at, no matter where rates go next. Cash and short-term bonds don't. Their yields reset, and if rates fall, so does the income.
The trade-off is price. If rates keep rising, a long bond loses value in the meantime, which is what happened four of those 11 times. But investors haven't been paid this much above inflation in almost 18 years.
Until next week,
Jacob
Sources & method
10-year Treasury yield: FRED DGS10 (Board of Governors H.15), through Sept. 30, 2026.
Expected inflation: FRED T10YIE, 10-Year Breakeven Inflation Rate.
Real yield: FRED DFII10, 10-Year TIPS yield.
Written by
Jacob Radke
Partner, Wealth Advisor
Jacob writes the weekly charts. Jacob leads the firm’s platform, including trading, research, portfolio systems and technology. He also sits on the firm’s board and investment committee, and advises client families.
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