RESEARCH
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The Highest in 19 Years
The Fed has cut six times since 2024. The 30-year Treasury went the other way, to its highest yield in nineteen years.
Jacob Radke
2 min read
U.S. Treasury par yields for the 3-month bill, the 10-year and the 30-year, from January 2022 through August 18, 2026.
Source · U.S. Treasury daily par yield curve, through August 18, 2026
30-year Treasury, August 17, 2026
5.31%
Highest closing yield since June 12, 2007.
Of Fed cuts since September 2024
1.75%
Six meetings, all at the front end of the curve.
3-month to 30-year spread
+1.42%
Up from −0.49% in October 2023.
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The Federal Reserve has cut 1.75% across six meetings since September 2024, but long rates have gone the other way. On Monday the 30-year Treasury closed at 5.31%, the highest since June 2007.
The economy is the reason. Spending by American households and businesses grew at a 3.9% annual rate last quarter, more than double the 1.7% rate in the first three months of the year. The AI buildout is part of that, with data centers, servers and networking gear now accounting for about 0.8% of the entire U.S. economy.
Corporate profits followed. Second quarter earnings for the S&P 500 came in 50% above last year.
Inflation came with the growth. PCE inflation came in at a 5.1% annual rate last quarter, up from 4.6% in the first quarter. And the Fed changed hands, with Kevin Warsh signaling higher, or at least not lower, rates in June followed by three Fed officials dissenting in favor of a hike in July.
This is what a normal rate environment looks like. A 30-year should pay more than a 10-year, and a 10-year should pay more than a three-month bill, because money committed for thirty years is locked up for thirty years and a lot can happen in that time.
And while the Fed controls short-term rates, long-term rates are set by the market and influenced by growth, inflation, and risk conditions.
Right now all three are pointing in the same direction, toward higher rates and more expensive borrowing.
Until next week,
Jacob
Sources & method
1. Yields: the 30-year Treasury closed at 5.31% on August 17, 2026, the highest close since June 12, 2007, verified against U.S. Treasury par yields back to 2000. Latest close August 18, 2026: 30-year 5.28%, 10-year 4.71%, 3-month 3.86%.
2. Household and business spending: real final sales to private domestic purchasers rose at a 3.9% annual rate in the second quarter of 2026, up from 1.7% in the first. Bureau of Economic Analysis, GDP advance estimate, released July 30, 2026. Headline real GDP grew 1.5% in the same quarter, so the acceleration is in private domestic demand rather than the top-line figure.
3. AI infrastructure: data center construction, compute hardware and networking together account for roughly 0.8% of GDP. Epoch AI, updated June 5, 2026.
4. Earnings: S&P 500 second-quarter blended earnings growth of 50.4%. FactSet Earnings Insight, August 7, 2026. Roughly a third of that growth came from $151 billion of unrealized investment gains booked by Alphabet and Amazon; excluding those two companies the growth rate was 32.0%.
5. Inflation: the PCE price index rose at a 5.1% annual rate in the second quarter of 2026 against 4.6% in the first, and 3.4% excluding food and energy. Bureau of Economic Analysis, July 30, 2026.
6. Federal Reserve: 175 basis points of cuts across six meetings from September 2024 through December 2025, leaving the target range at 3.50–3.75% with no moves in 2026. Kevin Warsh became chair in June 2026 and his first meeting removed the easing bias from the statement; three officials dissented in favor of a rate increase at the July meeting.
7. Method: figures are daily par yields published by the U.S. Treasury, not constant-maturity swap rates. The 30-year is the series carrying the story; the 10-year at 4.71% sits below its October 2023 peak of 4.98%, so the new high is a long-end event. The spread between the 3-month bill and the 30-year moved from −0.49% in October 2023 to +1.42% as of August 18, 2026.
Written by
Jacob Radke
Partner, Wealth Advisor
Jacob writes the weekly charts. Jacob leads the firm’s platform, including trading, research, portfolio systems and technology. He also sits on the firm’s board and investment committee, and advises client families.
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