RESEARCH
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No. 145
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What the First Half Says About the Second Half
The S&P is up 9.6% through June. In the 53 years the first half finished green, the second half followed three times out of four, averaging a 6.2% gain.
Jacob Radke
2 min read
S&P 500 first-half versus second-half price returns from 1950 through 2025; 2026 is marked as a first-half data point.
Source · Yahoo Finance, S&P 500 daily close
2026 first-half return
+9.6%
S&P 500 price return through June 30.
Second-half win rate
79%
When the first half finished positive.
Strong-start win rate
84%
For first halves up 9.6% or more.
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The S&P 500 closed out the first half of the year on June 30 up 9.6%. The chart below looks at what a start like that has meant for the rest of the year.
I split every year since 1950 into two halves and plotted them. On the x-axis is the January–June return, and on the y-axis is the July–December return. Each dot is one year.
The dots in the upper right were positive in both halves, and that’s where most of them are.
The data is clear: good first halves have tended to lead to good second halves. In the 53 years the first half was positive, the second half was up about three out of four times, averaging 6.2%. When the first half was negative, the second half was closer to a coin flip.
That data gets stronger the better the performance in the first half. In the 25 years the S&P was up 9.6% or more by June, right where we are now, the second half was positive 84% of the time. It’s no guarantee — in 1987 the market was up big at midyear and gave it all back in the fall — but more often than not, a strong start has carried into the back half instead of reversing.
Until next week,
Jacob
Sources & method
Source data: S&P 500 daily close (^GSPC), Yahoo Finance, December 1949 through July 2026.
First-half return equals the last close on or before June 30 divided by the last close of the prior year, minus one. Second-half return equals the last close of the year divided by the last close on or before June 30, minus one.
Price returns only; dividends excluded. The 2026 first-half result is excluded from second-half statistics and historical averages.
Written by
Jacob Radke
Partner, Wealth Advisor
Jacob writes the weekly charts. Jacob leads the firm’s platform, including trading, research, portfolio systems and technology. He also sits on the firm’s board and investment committee, and advises client families.
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