RESEARCH
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No. 138
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The Month After a New All-Time High
New all-time highs tend to be followed by quieter months, but stronger twelve-month returns.
Jacob Radke
2 min read
Average S&P 500 forward price returns after a new all-time high versus any other trading day, using the post-1988 sample.
Source · S&P 500 daily close; Fjell Capital analysis
Average next-month return
+0.19%
Following a new S&P 500 all-time high since 1988.
Average next-year return
+11.40%
Following a new S&P 500 all-time high since 1988.
New all-time highs
~750
S&P 500 record closes in the modern era.
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Charts
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The S&P 500 made another all-time high last week. That’s 14 already in 2026, on top of 57 in 2024 and 39 in 2025.
Going back to 1988, the average gain in the month after a new high is just under 0.2%, well below the +0.89% return on any other day.
That’s the part that feels intuitive. The surprise is what happens if you keep going. Twelve months after a new all-time high, the S&P 500 has averaged a +11.4% price return, better than the +10.1% from any other day. Add dividends back in and the gap widens by another roughly 2%. The short-term hesitation that can follow a record close gives way to a longer-term tailwind.
The takeaway is not that nothing can go wrong. Plenty of new highs were followed by drawdowns; 2000 and 2007 are in the dataset. The takeaway is that all-time highs are not, on their own, a top signal. The market spends about 8% of its trading days at a record close. Most of those days were good ones to own stocks.
Until next week,
Jacob
Sources & method
Source data: S&P 500 daily close, January 3, 1950 through May 7, 2026. The chart and statistics use the post-1988 subsample.
A new all-time high is any daily close that exceeds every prior close in the series. Forward returns are measured 21 trading days and 252 trading days ahead.
Price returns only. Dividends reinvested would widen the twelve-month gap by roughly two percentage points.
Written by
Jacob Radke
Partner, Wealth Advisor
Jacob writes the weekly charts. Jacob leads the firm’s platform, including trading, research, portfolio systems and technology. He also sits on the firm’s board and investment committee, and advises client families.
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