The tmrw Framework

You want to nail investing over the next decade.

We are going through a once in a lifetime transformation in our economy and markets.

Last week’s edition was a primer for what markets themselves will look like, where gambling and investing come closer and closer together.

For better or worse.

I gave you a set of four simple questions to keep top of mind as the next few years unfold.

This week, I want to walk through how we invest at Fjell and the framework that this newsletter is actually named after.

In some ways, this is a continuation of last week, but less abstract.

I do not know what the future holds, but I know one thing for sure. Things are going to change faster than we can imagine.

The framework you are about to learn is how I, as a professional investor and advisor, stay:

1. Calm in the chaos

2. Optimistic in the worry

3. Level headed when things shift

To understand why this framework matters, you first need to see the landscape you have already lived through.

You have invested through four major cycles that shaped where you and your portfolio are today. Here is what they were and how they ended.

• 1990s – The Dot Com Era followed by the Dot Com Crash

• 2000s – The Real Estate Bubble followed by the Global Financial Crisis

• 2010s – The SaaS Revolution followed by the Covid Crash

• 2020s – The AI Revolution – ending with ???

  
  

In modern markets, innovation drives long bull runs. Markets rise, economic conditions peak, and eventually a crash or recession follows. Out of those recessions, the seeds of despair become the foundation for the next bull market.

And cycles are not just an equity market story. They show up across every part of your portfolio. Fixed income plays a key role in your financial life and is a source of reliable monthly income for many retirees, and there is no better proxy for fixed income cycles than the Fed Funds Rate.

Here is the interest rate chart over the past 30 years overlaid with the S&P 500’s returns and US recessions.

Purple Line: Fed Funds Rate | Pink Line: S&P500 | Grey Bars: US Recessions

Interest rate policy, economic expansion, and market crashes move in cycles. And as you can see, things tend to go up slowly and down quickly.

When you think about your financial life and what you are trying to accomplish over decades, it is important to remember the two key rules of investing that Warren Buffett famously created:

1. Do not lose money.

2. Never forget rule #1.

   
   

It is impossible to avoid losses in the short term, but the mindset of “do not lose money” is worth its weight in gold. It means knowing where you are strong, where you are weak, where you should lean in, and how to respond when conditions change, for better or worse.

If this rule is good enough for Buffett, it is good enough for the rest of us.

Growth and passive income are what most people focus on when they think about investing. But if rule number one is not always present in your mind, it becomes easy to chase trends at the wrong time. On the other side, if you fall asleep at the wheel with your financial life, you will never know where you truly stand.

I have been investing professionally for over a decade. I have guided clients through the pandemic, the cloud revolution, the oil bust of 2015, meme stock mania, trade wars, and real wars. Through all of it, this simple rule set has been incredibly helpful.

Now, with the backdrop of market cycles and the rules of investing behind us, let’s go deeper into what is happening today and what will happen in the future.

The future is in the data centers.

tmrw is more than the name of this newsletter. It is a philosophy I have developed to help myself respond to a changing world while keeping the goal of investing present. We have built our asset management strategy around it, and it serves as a guide for the content we produce, both for this newsletter and for our clients.

Every great investor has a framework they follow:

• Warren Buffett buys undervalued companies.

• Peter Lynch bought companies he understood.

• Steve Jobs built beautiful products.

• Elon Musk is trying to get humanity to Mars.

• John D. Rockefeller believed in cooperation over competition.

  
  

The point is simple. Great investors rely on simple ideas to stay grounded. You need something similar to guide your thinking as the world continues to change.

Here is the reality. The world you are investing in is changing fast.

Here is a simple graphic to illustrate this.

Time itself has not changed, but what happens inside a single day has. That is driven by the massive amount of data centers being built and what that computing power can do.

The same 24 hours in a day now produce exponentially more information as humans use AI and as the explosion in AI agents accelerates. Sam Altman recently said he would be embarrassed if his company was not the first to have an AI CEO. That should tell you how quickly things are shifting.

By the time all of this fully unfolds, you will probably be deep into retirement. You will be fully reliant on your portfolio and the government to live.

One thing you can control. One thing you cannot.

What matters to you today is this. We now live in a world where information moves fast and markets move just as quickly.

Remember the tariff announcement in the Rose Garden this year. The market sold off nearly 20 percent in just three days.

Information travels instantly now, and it shapes behavior. Many of us have become a bit skeptical, maybe even skittish, about the world we are living in.

These are modern markets, created by modern people, driven by unprecedented access to cutting edge technology.

That brings us to how we invest and how we prepare for what is next.

The past won’t be prologue this time around.

So here is how we are actively investing through both the changing and challenging times that 2025 has posed.

Tactical

I believe in long-term investing. I believe in indexing and keeping costs low. But I also understand that for the work we do at Fjell, managing portfolios for families across the US, simply riding it out does not always cut it.

That is why we include a tactical element.

For example, with interest rates higher today and government debt taking a larger share of bond indexes, we will tactically rotate into shorter-term debt when conditions call for it. It is simple, but it adds a layer of responsiveness that modern investing demands.

Multi-Asset

Interest rates are higher than most investors are used to. Crypto, gold, and alternatives are going mainstream. The portfolios of the future will look different because technology and investor preferences are evolving and markets are meeting that demand.

This is where multi-asset investing comes in. We build portfolios that hold more than large U.S. stocks and core bonds. This creates flexibility and opportunity when markets shift.

Resilience

With new asset classes becoming mainstream and new ETFs launching every day, it is easier than ever to chase returns. That rarely works for the long term.

That is why resilience matters.

You want a portfolio that produces stability, income, and growth for as long as you do. The longer you have to go, the more resilience matters. You do not want fads in your retirement assets. You want profit. You do not want unnecessary fees. You want results. You do not want volatility keeping you up at night. You want confidence.

Multi-asset investing gives you diversification and opportunity. Resilience provides the stability.

Wealth Building

And remember rule number one, do not lose money.

At the end of every investment decision our investment committee makes, we ask a simple question. Does this build wealth, or does it resemble a casino or a forgotten downtown building that was once great but now sits empty?

Your portfolio should reflect strength and stability. It should hold up when times get tough. It should help you sleep well at night.

This last point is philosophical, but it is also practical. It balances everything we have talked about.

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When you put those elements together, you get an approach that covers the realities of short-term market moves with the unwavering belief in long-term investing.

tmrw is the framework I use to stay both optimistic and cautious at the same time. It helps me keep greed in check and ease fear when markets or the media get rough.

The best stance an investor can have is cautious optimism. You have to be an optimist to invest. But most retirees, especially those with a few million dollars invested, are not willing to endure a 50 percent market drawdown in their golden years simply because they believe in the US tech story.

Risk-taking and optimism are essential to investing, but drawdowns, recessions, and shocks will happen. Pandemics, wars, tariffs, you name it.

You want to invest like a champion through them.

Technology is reshaping our world faster than ever. Sometimes staying the course is not enough because the course that got us here will not be the same as where we are heading next.

That is why we use our tmrw framework to navigate change and to help our clients live well in a world where we will soon have robots serving us at restaurants, AI tutors teaching our kids, and self-driving cars picking us up at the airport.

You only live once. You only build wealth once. You only retire once. Tomorrow is not guaranteed, but you can make it better today.

Stay good.

Tom