RESEARCH
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No. 149
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M&A and IPOs lead the banks higher
The six largest U.S. banks have returned roughly twice the market since the start of 2025. The deal machine is why.
Jacob Radke
4 min read
Equal-weight basket of JPM, BAC, WFC, C, GS and MS against the S&P 500, rebased to December 31, 2024. Total return, dividends included.
Source · Yahoo Finance, prices through August 7, 2026
Since January 2, 2025
+66.4%
Equal-weight basket of the six largest U.S. banks.
Benchmark
+31.9%
S&P 500 over the same window.
Year over year
$3.1T
Global M&A announced in the first half of 2026.
Category
Charts
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Since the start of 2025, the six largest U.S. banks returned 66% as a group, while the S&P 500 returned 32%.
2021 was the biggest year ever for mergers and acquisitions, with about $5.9 trillion of deals announced worldwide. Global M&A reached $3.1 trillion in the first half of 2026 alone, the largest six months on record and 48% higher than a year earlier. And the IPO market has recovered alongside it. U.S. companies raised roughly $141 billion in initial public offerings in the first half, the most since 2021.
JPMorgan's investment banking fees rose 28% year over year last quarter, and its trading revenue was the highest in the firm's history. The banks with the largest capital-markets businesses collected the most, which is essentially the order on the chart.
The deal market is highly cyclical, but is now recovering from higher interest rates and an aggressive Federal Trade Commission.
Until next week,
Jacob
Sources & method
1. 2021 M&A record: about $5.9 trillion in full-year global announced deal value. Bain & Company, Global M&A Report 2022. Refinitiv reports roughly $5.7 trillion; sources vary, hence “about.”
2. First half 2026 M&A: a record $3.1 trillion, the busiest first half on record and 48% higher year over year. Goldman Sachs, 2026.
3. U.S. IPO proceeds of roughly $141 billion in the first half of 2026, the most since 2021. Nasdaq and Bloomberg, 2026.
4. JPMorgan first-quarter 2026 earnings, reported April 14, 2026: investment banking fees up 28% year over year and a record $11.6 billion Markets quarter.
5. Method: the basket is equal-weight, buy-and-hold, rebased to the December 31, 2024 close. Prices are total-return adjusted, so dividends are included. Figures are as of the August 7, 2026 close.
Written by
Jacob Radke
Partner, Wealth Advisor
Jacob writes the weekly charts. Jacob leads the firm’s platform, including trading, research, portfolio systems and technology. He also sits on the firm’s board and investment committee, and advises client families.
Contact
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