Thoughts on the year so far

Thoughts on the year so far

This year has been a year like many have been recently, filled with surprises.

Wouldn’t have guessed the SP500 would be at 4,450 and the Nasdaq over 14,000 at the midpoint of the year.

Surprising, but I have to say, I am not that surprised.

Back in November, the team and I were doing research on how markets responded to the outcome of our most recent mid term election.

And if history repeated itself, we’d be in for a good year.

The markets are acting a lot like they have in the past coming off events that we have.

To recap 2022 at a high level.

We had the fasted rate hike cycle in history, a war, supply chain issues, a bear market followed by a mid year bull then another bear.

Jamie Dimon famously said storm clouds were brewing.

Warren Buffett was buying.

We ended the year down.

It was a painful year.

What happens after a bad year? The stock market usually goes up, a lot.

And that is what is happening in real time.

And heres’ the thing. There are a lot of people that don’t believe this rally that are still on the sidelines in cash.

Just look at M2 money supply, it’s flat but near all time highs.

So at the mid point of the year, here’s what has changed.

1. Short term rates are looking like they are close to peaking.
2. Inflation is down by half (currently sitting at 4.83%)
3. The economy is still adding jobs.
4. The markets are up significantly.

Here is what hasn’t changed.

1. People are still calling for a recession, though we may have soft landed our way out of it.
2. Geopolitical tensions are high.
3. People don’t believe this rally.

This has indeed been an interesting year, albeit with a lot less drama than prior years.

Seems like we’re all enjoying the summer and the fruits of a nice first half of the year.

Some things have changed, others have not.

History never repeats itself, it just rhymes with itself.

2023 sure feels like 2021, 2019, 2013, and 2009.

And while I write this at our family’s lake cottage, enjoying time with my wife and kids, I hope you find yourself having a great year, filled with growth, health and wealth.

Take time this weekend to give someone you care about a hug, look them in the eye and tell them something nice.

I’ll do the same.

See you next week.

This year has been a year like many have been recently, filled with surprises.

Wouldn’t have guessed the SP500 would be at 4,450 and the Nasdaq over 14,000 at the midpoint of the year.

Surprising, but I have to say, I am not that surprised.

Back in November, the team and I were doing research on how markets responded to the outcome of our most recent midterm election.

And if history repeated itself, we’d be in for a good year.

The markets are acting a lot like they have in the past coming off events that we have.

To recap 2022 at a high level.

We had the fasted rate hike cycle in history, a war, supply chain issues, a bear market followed by a midyear bull then another bear.

Jamie Dimon famously said storm clouds were brewing.

Warren Buffett was buying.

We ended the year down.

It was a painful year.

What happens after a bad year? The stock market usually goes up, a lot.

And that is what is happening in real time.

And heres’ the thing. There are a lot of people that don’t believe this rally that are still on the sidelines in cash.

Just look at M2 money supply, it’s flat but near all time highs.

So at the midpoint of the year, here’s what has changed.

1. Short term rates are looking like they are close to peaking.
2. Inflation is down by half (currently sitting at 4.83%).
3. The economy is still adding jobs.
4. The markets are up significantly.

Here is what hasn’t changed.

1. People are still calling for a recession, though we may have soft landed our way out of it.
2. Geopolitical tensions are high.
3. People don’t believe this rally.

This has indeed been an interesting year, albeit with a lot less drama than prior years.

Seems like we’re all enjoying the summer and the fruits of a nice first half of the year.

Some things have changed, others have not.

History never repeats itself; it just rhymes with itself.

2023 sure feels like 2021, 2019, 2013, and 2009.

And while I write this at our family’s lake cottage, enjoying time with my wife and kids, I hope you find yourself having a great year, filled with growth, health and wealth.

Take time this weekend to give someone you care about a hug, look them in the eye and tell them something nice.

I’ll do the same.

See you next week.

Good Reads

• 10 Surprises of 2023
• Do hard things
• “We just inherited $600k”
• Life before smartphones